The Scottsdale Real Estate Files

As I have for the past seven or eight years, I'm participating in a Fantasy Football league this fall.  Well, participating is a bit of a misnomer.  Between familial and business commitments, not to mention a recent move, my performance has been somewhat ... lackluster.  In fact, I have no idea who I even ran out there the first weekend.  Whoever it was, they were good for a forty point thrashing at the hands of some geek in Philadelphia.  When I finally bothered to check in a few days ago, I was surprised to see that the automated draft had actually produced a few big-name players for me.  Carson Palmer was slinging the rock.  LT was toting it.  Two of my three starting wide receivers are Pro-Bowlers (for you non football fans, that does not mean that they compete on the professional Rock'N Bowl circuit during the offseason).  My kicker had the requisite unpronounceable last name to ensure he was raised to boot an oblong piece of stuffed synthetic pigskin through two yellow poles.

The computer obviously thought enough of the statistical prowess of these players to assemble the motley crew that would come to be known as "Phunk U."

Funny thing about those computers and their data, though.  It's the very same mantra you hear from financial guys ad naseum:  Past performance does not necessarily dictate future performance.

All of those pretty stats from last season would have made a good starting point, but they are still a year old.  A professional athlete's performance may be affected by many things.  Health is first and foremost in the order of importance.  The stud running back who found the end zone fifteen times last year might have dinged himself up during the preseason and lost a bit from his peak ability.  Shoot, he could have hurt his pinky toe playing footsie for that matter.  There is also the matter of teammates.  Suppose that same running back was following a 275 pound fullback with a head the size of a Prius through the defense last year?  If Sir-Blocks-A-Lot took a free agent deal to play elsewhere this season, our boy is going to have to fight a lot harder for the yards that came so easily in the past.  Then there is the issue of his contract.  What if he was playing in the final year of his contract last season?  He played out of his gourd as a man only can when he smells a new deal.  Preferably one with more zeroes than you'd find in the Oval Office right now.

Once the man gets paid, he might have a hard time recapturing that lightning in a bottle.

So where is the rather flimsy analogy amidst Paul's Guide to Fantasy Football Futility?  Aside from the evident truth that Carson Palmer is about as worthless as sanity at Gary Busey's beach house, it is this simple message to sellers:

GET YOUR HEADS OUT OF 2005

Trust me, I know the house across the street went for $575,000 a couple of years ago.  I sold it.

I know what the house a couple blocks over fetched a year ago.  I sold it, too.

As difficult as it is to let go of the high water mark, let go of it we must.  Properties that sold six months ago, let alone two to three years ago, are obsolete.  Just as you wouldn't have accepted the premise of pulling sale comps from 2004 during the height of 2005, when the month to month appreciation rates were staggering, you simply cannot base your current market value on yesterday's statistics.

Trust me, I wish we could.

Every time values fall, we agents take a pay cut.  We don't like that.

So when I, or one of my esteemed colleagues, break out the recent data to discuss your home's present value, please be aware that we know all too well about the Carstons next door.  Same for the Richardsons down the street. Those sales aren't just stale, they're hockey pucks.  

I could nod my head and allow myself to be persuaded, but I'd be a lousy agent if I let my potential clients sell me on value.  This is what I do.  All day, every day.  In a difficult market, I will not waste your time, nor my own, inflating your head with a Disneyland expectation, only to produce state fair results. 

My pledge to you is complete and total honesty in not only providing a reality-based professional opinion of value, but in everything I do.  Seems odd to need to say that, but I wish more would. 

Time for me to go set my lineup for tomorrow's games now.  LaDainian Tomlinson is questionable with an injury, and just doesn't appear to be the same running back without Lorenzo Neal blocking for him. 

Hmm ... he did run, catch and throw for a touchdown in the same game back in 2005, though.  Tough call.