The Scottsdale Real Estate Files: September 2008

This is by far the most entertaining election cycle I have ever seen.  If not for the economic quagmire and two grueling wars in which we are embroiled, I would be endlessly amused. 

Who am I kidding?  I am amused nonetheless.

We now take you semi-live to the action.

In the blue corner, weighing in at 60 pounds soaking wet, we have the challenger from Illinois, by way of Hawaii, Indonesia and Kenya.  Put your hands together for Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarack Obaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaama!

In the red corner, standing three feet, four inches tall, fighting out of the Crustaceous Era, please give a warm round of applause for John “Did I Mention I Was a P.O.W?” McccccccccccccccccccccCain!

As the bell rings, Obama immediately breaks into the Ali Shuffle.  Bobbing, weaving, floating like a butterfly. 

McCain charges across the ring and immediately decks the referee.

It’s apparent that Obama has the benefit of speed and instinct, not to mention a seventeen inch reach advantage.  McCain meanwhile wades in with ferocity and guile. 

No punches have been landed at this point as McCain seems to have trouble catching up to the speedster from Harvard, while Mr. Intellectual Elite does not seem particularly interested in mixing it up with the beer heiress’s husband.

DING!

The combatants return to their corners.

In the Blue Corner, Obama’s trainers appear to be pleading with their fighter to fight.  They are pointing across the ring at his opponent.  “He’s tired, champ!  Look at him!  His punches are wild, he’s not moving his head!  He’s wide open for chrissakes!  Let your hands go!”

Now let’s check in with the Red Corner.

“You’re killing him, champ!  You’re killing him!  Keep busting him up on the inside with that earmark pen!  You gotta get closer, though.  The ref can see the fouls when you’re on the outside trading quips!  Get in close where you can hit him with the lobbyist ties!  The judges won't be able to see yours!”

Strong words from Rick Davis, indeed.  I hear Fanny and Freddy will be holding his purse if their guy takes a dive.

DING!

The fighters emerge from the corners.  Obama is up on his toes again.  He sure seems to have the float like a butterfly part down pat.  Grace in motion he is.  His corner is screaming at him to remember the sting like a bee part.

McCain is back after him with a vengeance.  Determined to chase his foe “to the gates of Hell,” we in the booth think that means President Bush’s sensory deprivation chamber, but we can’t be sure. 

Wait … what’s this???

Some hockey mom has climbed atop the top rope!  She is coiling to leap on the young Senator.  Looks like she is wielding a gigantic side of ham!  This could be exactly what the flagging Senator from Arizona needs to finally corral his elusive foe!

Swinging the pork as she launches herself at the fighter in the blue trunks, she’s shrieking something about reaching across the aisle to smack the taste out of his mouth.  I must say that she is not hard on the eyes.  Quite a lovely shade of lipstick.  I’m being told by producers that she is an undefeated cage fighter from Alaska.  What she is doing ringside at a major venue like Madison Square Garden for the heavyweight championship of the world, I have no earthly idea.

The challenger looks stunned.  He was evidently not briefed for this departure from script.  Deftly stepping out of the way, however, the Alaskan Assassin lands only a glancing blow.  She is rooted to the canvas by that side of ham.  Looks like she has been felled by the very same pork product that had been hoped to decapitate the leftist media darling.  If we can get past her handlers, we’ll have plenty of questions for this interloper after tonight’s festivities.

DING!

Obama looks shaken.  While the assault from the top ropes was quickly evaded, McCain appears to have been emboldened by the tough talking simpleton from the north.  At least she would drown out that heckling buffoon in the fourth row.  Eat that, Biden.

The red corner is telling their guy that he looks great.  The young guy will fold.  He has no experience in the late rounds.  Get him into the deep water, and he’s ours.  Hit him with the lobbyist stuff again, says the deregulatory lobbyist.

The blue corner is slapping their guy fully across the face.  “Do you want to win, damn it?  Do you want to win?  It’s yours for the taking!  His own corner hates this guy!  All you have to do is throw your punches!  Please!  For the love of God, stop turdling and fight this guy!”

DING!

Obama is up on his toes again.  Feeling his oats, he’s starting to tentatively flick his jab out there.  He’s a good ten feet away from his target, but it’s something.

McCain, meanwhile, looks gassed.  He just cold-cocked the liberally biased ref for the fifth time.  He doesn’t know whether to drill, regulate or bomb Iran.  He looks like a caged animal.

Obama is starting to hammer away with that jab now.  He’s really peppering him with Bush references and corrections every time McCain throws that misinformation haymaker.

But wait!  McCain has finally caught up to his slick challenger!  He’s got him in a corner.  The young Congressman is holding on for dear life as Karl Rove proteges try to pin McCain’s economic voting record on the erstwhile challenger!  Vicious one-twos of “You don’t have any experience in Washington” and “You are a Washington insider crony!” 

Obama finally breaks free, and McCain trips over himself in zealous pursuit!  Upon rising, McCain trips again!  He’s completely disoriented!  He’s calling the fight game fundamentally strong and demanding the resignation of the New York State Boxing Commission in response to the last De La Hoya performance!  This is getting ugly!

What’s he doing??!!

He’s saying “No mas!”

McCain is saying “No mas!”

There is pandemonium in the ring!  Obama is dancing around the ring with his arms raised, screaming at McCain to keep fighting!  He’s suddenly throwing vicious shadow punches now that the contest has been halted!  McCain and his handlers are demanding that the judges hold onto their scorecards!  They want the fight postponed until after he flies to New York to tape a couple of interviews, before heading to the capitol the storm about Congress with no clear role. 

This is what I call being Heavyweight Champion!

Forget mucking up delicate sparring sessions when no one in the gym has seen your mug since April, it’s big boy time!  This is a nation that demands our leaders act busy. 

Quick!  Crumple a beer can against your melon and fire someone!  Anyone!

Obama is still standing in the ring!  He refuses to postpone the fight.  Oddly enough, despite vowing to stop fighting until the current crisis has been abated, McCain is hurling programs and concessions at his opponent as he leaves the arena, and appears on television seventy eight times in the next five minutes announcing his rescue efforts on behalf of the global economy. He thinks he may have also discovered Colonel Sanders' secret recipe and cured cancer along the way.

Damn, should have paid more attention in Finance 101!

Back in the ring, Obama starts fighting the hot dog vendor.

The Alaskan Assassin emerges from the Dick Cheney safe and is mercilessly attacked by the ruthless Katie Couric with such bombastic questions as, “What exact foreign policy experience do you have?”

With no resolution in place, McCain returns to MSG to resume the fight.  It is a clever ploy. Obama is cold and tight now.  His movements aren’t as crisp, and the older McCain is able to keep pace in the rhetorical pugilistics.  Now that the man in red is anxious to scrap again, Obama appears weary of the conflict.  He keeps reaching for the post-fight hug even though it is only round four.  For some reason, he is unwilling to throw the highly anticipated "Keating 5 Bolo Punch."

Looks like this one is going to go the distance folks, but we are out of time for this broadcast.  We will now return to the regularly scheduled airing of “Heidi.” 

From Wall Street to Main Street, I bid you goodnight.

It is no secret that Scottsdale, Arizona is one of the most coveted winter destinations in the United States.  Every year, from November to April, the self-proclaimed West’s Most Western Town greets visitors from all parts of the world.  Midwesterners and Canadians are usual suspects, and the contingent that visits from back East grows every year.   With mounting concern over hurricanes and other factors, Scottsdale has siphoned a fair portion of regulars from the usual winter haunts in the Southern states.

So while I am not exactly letting the cat out of the bag about the seasonal appeal of the Sonoran Desert, the intention of this piece is to provide an overview of a few of the more seasonal resident-friendly communities in Scottsdale.  Considering that most who visit will return for future seasons, it is not surprising that many will opt to purchase a second home here at some point.  Seasonal lease rates can run up to three to four times typical offseason rates for furnished rentals, so ownership can be much more appealing. 

For the two people on the continent who need convincing that Scottsdale is a terrific place to own a vacation home, allow me to persuade you with this oldie but goodie.  For everyone else, here are some communities which I am highlighting for their traditional appeal to winter residents:  centrally located near coveted amenities such as walking paths, lakes, dining, shopping, parks, etc.  Proximity to Sky Harbor Airport and convenient freeway access to other parts of the Valley is also taken into consideration. 

• Heritage Village in McCormick Ranch is a multi-phase development of patio homes.  Nestled amongst the surrounding subdivisions of single-family detached homes, these homes are ideal for the seasonal resident.  The properties are single-level, and share one common wall with their neighbors.  Ranging in size from approximately 1700-2300 square feet, these homes were constructed between the late 70s – mid 80s, and include two car garages and private patios.  It is the ideal blend of private ownership (unlike condo ownership, you own your own dirt in addition to the structure) and community amenities.  The reasonable monthly association fee of $200 (plus an additional $180 annual planned community fee) provides common area maintenance, front yard maintenance, tennis courts and use of the heated community pools & spas.  Perfect for those who want the privacy of a single family home, but not the maintenance of a private pool and yard.  With one phase based along the banks of Lake Angela, and another along the McCormick Ranch Golf Course, the locations couldn’t be more ideal.  Immediate access to the McCormick Ranch walking paths (which run throughout the subdivisions) provides the intrepid with routes to the parks, restaurants, lakes and golf courses that make it famous.  More than most communities which are favored by winter residents, the Golden Heritage homes live and feel like “houses,” as opposed to townhouses.   Current pricing ranges from the upper $300,000s to the $600,000s (lakefront or golf course lots).

• Indian Bend Village, more commonly known by its marketing name of “Suntree,” is another great option for the seasonal resident.  Legally recorded as a townhouse subdivision, these Spanish style patio homes offer similar advantages to Heritage Village.  These properties vary between one and two levels, and share, at most, one common wall with a neighbor.  The ideal combination of privacy and low maintenance, there are no neighbors above or below in a Suntree patio home.  The stylish tile roofs and stucco exteriors culminate in a prototypical Spanish style home.  For those who want their Scottsdale experience to entail all of the trappings of the Southwest, it doesn’t get anymore “Arizona” than this.  Just south of McCormick Ranch, this smaller community of 174 homes abuts the Silverado Golf Course in central Scottsdale.  With convenient access to the nearby walking paths, downtown Scottsdale scene and shopping / dining galore, the location leaves little to be desired.  The reasonable $130 monthly association fee covers common area & front yard maintenance in addition to use of the tennis court and heated community pool & spa.  Homes in Suntree were constructed in the early 80s, and primarily range from 1400-2000 square feet.  Current prices range from $325,000 - $550,000.

• Santa Fe is a quaint Spanish style patio home community in McCormick Ranch.  Featuring single and two-story homes between 1800-2300 square feet, the western perimeter of Santa Fe abuts Camelback Walk (McCormick Ranch walking path) and the McCormick Ranch Golf Course.  With timeless appeal, these villas were originally constructed in the 70s.  A wave of remodeling has crashed into the development in recent years, creating a terrific marriage of charm and modern luxury in many.  Directly across Hayden Road is the Paseo Village shopping center.  Santa Fe is also an easy walk from the McCormick Ranch Golf Club and the Mercado Del Lago center that boasts fine, as well as casual, dining.  The walking paths extend south virtually uninterrupted to Tempe.  Heading northeast, you can meander all the way to the hospital at 90^th St and Shea without crossing a road.  Along that walk, you’ll pass Cochise Elementary School, Mountain View Park, Lake Margherite, Lake Nino, Lake Angela, the Palm & Pine Golf Courses … there are no finer pedestrian accommodations in the Valley.  The low monthly HOA fee of $154/month (plus an additional annual $180 planned community fee) pays for the heated community pool & spa (overlooking the golf course, with views of Camelback Mountain), common area maintenance, front yard maintenance, exterior maintenance and blanket insurance policy on the homes (with limitations).  Current asking prices in Santa Fe range from $400,000 - $600,000.

• The Colony at Scottsdale is another multi-phase development in central Scottsdale.  Located approximately a quarter of a mile west of Indian Bend Village, these patio homes were built from the mid 70s to the early 80s in three sections.  The older two sections primarily include carports, but some have been converted to garages over the years.  The furthest north of the phases (has a separate HOA) is a bit more modern, and all homes have 2 car garages.  The beige exterior versus plain white, and a marketing name of “Arroyo Verde Homes” also serve to differentiate this phase from the preceding two.  The homes in the Colony are similar to the other developments listed here in that they merge community living with privacy.  Otherwise put, there is a sense of single-family living without the maintenance.  These homes share a common wall, but have no one above nor below.  Homes in The Colony range from 900-1600 square feet, and carry lesser price tags than some of the neighboring developments.  With similar community features to its more expensive counterparts, including pool & spa, access to jogging paths along the golf course & canal, exterior & front landscaping included in the HOA fees, The Colony is a great option for those with lesser size requirements.   The current fee in phases 1 and 2 (which share the same board) are $128 / month.  The third phase, Arroyo Verde, has a current fee of $170 / month.  Current pricing ranges from the low $200,000s to the low $300,000s.

• Gainey Ranch is the ultimate in lock and leave lifestyle.  A master planned community for the well-heeled, Gainey Ranch is sandwiched between McCormick Ranch and the town of Paradise Valley.  The beautiful Hyatt Regency lies just outside of its gates.  Gainey Ranch features manned guard gates for the community, individual gates for many of the subdivisions within, golf, tennis, community pools & spas, clubhouse and all styles of housing.  From single-family homes to condos, townhomes and patio homes, there is a wide variety from which to choose.  But when looking in Gainey Ranch, don’t forget to pack your big boy wallet.  The fees alone are prohibitive to many, and they don’t take American Express.  With a monthly planned community fee in the several hundred dollar range, along with additional monthly subdivision fees in many cases, there is a veritable house payment in fees alone.  Oh, and golf?  You guessed it.  That’s an additional fee.  Gainey should not be on your list if you are shopping on a budget.  If, however, you are operating with a bit more financial leeway, it’s tough to beat this community for location, amenities and security.  Prices swing wildly from small condos in the low $300,000s to multi-million dollar single family homes.

* All fees and values estimated as of September, 2008.

This is but a sampling of the options available.  From condos to mansions, there is a property for every budget and need.  To get the search started for your ideal Scottsdale vacation home, please feel free to contact me or visit your Scottsdale AZ Vacation Home Expert.

Does 70 degrees sound like your idea of winter?

See you soon.

Attention Citizens,

In these uncertain times, we here at the Treasury Department fully understand the fear that is running rampant across the nation.  Now that we have complete unfettered control of the financial markets, let us assuage those fears by announcing that we are hereby assuming all debt currently held in the United States.  Repeat, we are assuming all debt.

As all of you are going out of business, everything must go!

Bought your house on a 1-Year ARM from the first random mortgage broker on the street to say “Psst?”  We’ve got you covered.  If you also financed the genuine Timex he sold you, send us the bill.

You see, we here at the “Department of Your Money” are giving it away!  That’s right, we’re giving it away!  Worried that there won’t be enough to cover the equity line you just tapped on your living room furniture?  Relax, big guy!  If we run out, we’ll print more!  We’re the US freaking Treasury!  We’ll do whatever we want!

Slow credit, no credit, even a bankruptcy?  We want your debt! 

Now, we know that some of you may be wondering: how is the government going to be able to bail out every single borrower in the United States?  What, with the existing bailouts of major financial institutions that we cannot afford on top of a war that is being funded by our good friends in China, and all.  We’re glad you asked.

It’s time to annex Canada.

Let’s be honest, we’ve all thought about it.  It’s time we put those idyllic thoughts into comprehensive action.  In doing so, we will kill two Mounties with one stone.  For starters, we’re gonna need a hell of a lot more taxpayers if we are going to take on any more debt.  Having already soaked our own constituents to the tune of holy crap, you dirty b@st@rds, there is untapped potential for taxation in our syrup loving brethren to the north. We’ve already scrambled a team of highly trained third graders with paper airplanes for the invasion. 

This will also solve the health care crisis in this country.  You will all be entitled to the universal health insurance you deserve.  On Canada’s dime.  Everyone currently uninsured or underinsured will have a sponsor from the 51^st state.  For the cost of a cup of coffee a day, okay maybe an iced soy latte, the sponsor will receive updates and photos of their adopted family’s medical progress.   From routine checkups to annual colonoscopies, they will be there every step of the way.  They will beam with pride when you send them the bill for your sixteenth teeth whitening of the month.

That’s step one.

Step two … we’ve solved the problem to illegal immigration in this country.  We are taking Mexico, too.

For years, our brothers and sisters to the south have risked their lives in the sweltering desert heat for a chance at the American dream.  It’s about time we met them halfway.  They too can have a piece of our growing debt in return for citizenship. 

Welcome to the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave!  That will be one trillion dollars, please.

Don’t fret about having more mouths to feed.  These new states will really be more like territories.  We’ll bilk them of all natural resources, fill their coffers with worthless T-bills and give them Walmart cards.  Of course, our new constituents will immediately begin to produce all of their goods in Kuala Lampur.

There will be layoffs.  Nothing is concrete yet, but we’re thinking Rhode Island. 

What we have here, folks, is a simple demand problem.  People keep demanding their money, and we ain’t got it.

Time to bring aboard new suppliers. 

In the meantime, start compiling all of your paperwork.  We’ll absorb the small business loan you took out for the stripper pole in the basement as well as the 6k that you racked up on the AMEX in stamps on the angry letters to your Senator.

Shoot, we’ll even extend you new lines if you need them to get you back on your feet!  Can we interest you in a no-doc, 100% negative am program?

Don’t look at us. 

It was Greenspan.

As I have for the past seven or eight years, I'm participating in a Fantasy Football league this fall.  Well, participating is a bit of a misnomer.  Between familial and business commitments, not to mention a recent move, my performance has been somewhat ... lackluster.  In fact, I have no idea who I even ran out there the first weekend.  Whoever it was, they were good for a forty point thrashing at the hands of some geek in Philadelphia.  When I finally bothered to check in a few days ago, I was surprised to see that the automated draft had actually produced a few big-name players for me.  Carson Palmer was slinging the rock.  LT was toting it.  Two of my three starting wide receivers are Pro-Bowlers (for you non football fans, that does not mean that they compete on the professional Rock'N Bowl circuit during the offseason).  My kicker had the requisite unpronounceable last name to ensure he was raised to boot an oblong piece of stuffed synthetic pigskin through two yellow poles.

The computer obviously thought enough of the statistical prowess of these players to assemble the motley crew that would come to be known as "Phunk U."

Funny thing about those computers and their data, though.  It's the very same mantra you hear from financial guys ad naseum:  Past performance does not necessarily dictate future performance.

All of those pretty stats from last season would have made a good starting point, but they are still a year old.  A professional athlete's performance may be affected by many things.  Health is first and foremost in the order of importance.  The stud running back who found the end zone fifteen times last year might have dinged himself up during the preseason and lost a bit from his peak ability.  Shoot, he could have hurt his pinky toe playing footsie for that matter.  There is also the matter of teammates.  Suppose that same running back was following a 275 pound fullback with a head the size of a Prius through the defense last year?  If Sir-Blocks-A-Lot took a free agent deal to play elsewhere this season, our boy is going to have to fight a lot harder for the yards that came so easily in the past.  Then there is the issue of his contract.  What if he was playing in the final year of his contract last season?  He played out of his gourd as a man only can when he smells a new deal.  Preferably one with more zeroes than you'd find in the Oval Office right now.

Once the man gets paid, he might have a hard time recapturing that lightning in a bottle.

So where is the rather flimsy analogy amidst Paul's Guide to Fantasy Football Futility?  Aside from the evident truth that Carson Palmer is about as worthless as sanity at Gary Busey's beach house, it is this simple message to sellers:

GET YOUR HEADS OUT OF 2005

Trust me, I know the house across the street went for $575,000 a couple of years ago.  I sold it.

I know what the house a couple blocks over fetched a year ago.  I sold it, too.

As difficult as it is to let go of the high water mark, let go of it we must.  Properties that sold six months ago, let alone two to three years ago, are obsolete.  Just as you wouldn't have accepted the premise of pulling sale comps from 2004 during the height of 2005, when the month to month appreciation rates were staggering, you simply cannot base your current market value on yesterday's statistics.

Trust me, I wish we could.

Every time values fall, we agents take a pay cut.  We don't like that.

So when I, or one of my esteemed colleagues, break out the recent data to discuss your home's present value, please be aware that we know all too well about the Carstons next door.  Same for the Richardsons down the street. Those sales aren't just stale, they're hockey pucks.  

I could nod my head and allow myself to be persuaded, but I'd be a lousy agent if I let my potential clients sell me on value.  This is what I do.  All day, every day.  In a difficult market, I will not waste your time, nor my own, inflating your head with a Disneyland expectation, only to produce state fair results. 

My pledge to you is complete and total honesty in not only providing a reality-based professional opinion of value, but in everything I do.  Seems odd to need to say that, but I wish more would. 

Time for me to go set my lineup for tomorrow's games now.  LaDainian Tomlinson is questionable with an injury, and just doesn't appear to be the same running back without Lorenzo Neal blocking for him. 

Hmm ... he did run, catch and throw for a touchdown in the same game back in 2005, though.  Tough call.